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vs. Jason Vargas PA BA OBP SLG HR RBI
Derek Jeter SS 7 0.143 0.143 0.143 0 0
Nick Swisher RF 7 0.600 0.571 0.800 0 1
Mark Teixeira 1B 6 0.167 0.167 0.167 0 0
Robinson Cano 2B 7 0.714 0.714 1.000 0 0
Marcus Thames DH 1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Jorge Posada C 3 0.333 0.333 0.333 0 0
Austin Kearns LF 6 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Curtis Granderson CF 3 0.667 0.667 0.667 0 0
Eduardo Nunez 3B 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Total 40 0.342 0.350 0.421 0 1
             
vs. Javier Vazquez PA BA OBP SLG HR RBI
Ichiro Suzuki RF 28 0.296 0.321 0.407 0 1
Chone Figgins 2B 13 0.154 0.154 0.231 0 0
Russell Branyan DH 12 0.333 0.500 1.333 3 4
Jose Lopez 3B 21 0.211 0.238 0.211 0 2
Franklin Gutierrez CF 18 0.333 0.444 0.667 1 2
Casey Kotchman 1B 9 0.375 0.444 0.500 0 1
Josh Bard C 3 0.333 0.333 1.333 1 1
Michael Saunders LF 6 0.200 0.333 0.800 1 1
Josh Wilson SS 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Total 110 0.273 0.309 0.525 6 12

 

Yankees vs. Mariners    
Season: 2010 Season: 2009 Season: 2008 All-Time
TIED: 4-4 NYY: 6-4 NYY: 7-2 NYY: 201-161

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  Last 10 Last 20 Last 30
Yankees 6-4 10-10 17-13
Mariners 7-3 10-10 13-17

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  Home vs. RHP
Yankees 40-22 51-30
  Road vs. RHP
Mariners 20-41 38-46

Like a vintage Mike Tyson fight, the Yankees confrontation with King Felix was over before it started. Heading into last night’s game, the Mariners’ ace righty had thrown three consecutive complete game victories against the Yankees, allowing only one run in the process. So, when Russell Branyan’s upper cut of an AJ Burnett fastball sent the pitch into the Yankees’ bullpen, it was baseball’s equivalent of a TKO. After that devastating blow only three batters into the game, the Yankees’ lineup seemed to throw in the towel. Unfortunately, in baseball, a beaten team is still forced to go the distance.

Felix Hernandez knocked the bats out of the Yankees’ hands last night enroot to his fourth consecutive victory against the Bronx Bombers. Over that span, Hernandez has an ERA of 0.51 (Photo: AP).

If the Yankees had any glimmer of hope after falling behind 3-0, it was quickly extinguished in the bottom of the inning when Derek Jeter followed up Brett Gardner’s leadoff walk with his 18th double play on the season. For the remainder of the game, the Yankees lineup flailed away at Hernandez’ impressive arsenal of pitches, while AJ Burnett scuffled against one of the worst offenses in the league. The Mariners entered the game averaging a paltry 3.3 runs per game, but nearly doubled that total in only seven innings against Burnett. Considering the opposition, it’s hard to find any positive with Burnett’s effort, but he was at least able to remain in the game long enough to save the bullpen. As a result, Joe Girardi only needed to use Chad Gaudin, whose two shutout innings only further highlighted how poorly Burnett pitched.

Although the Yankees seemed to be going through the motions after the first inning, they were able to rise from the canvas and mount one threat in the fifth inning when two walks sandwiched around a single loaded the bases with only out. Usually, pitchers of Felix Hernandez’ caliber will give you one chance, if any at all, so, with the score already 5-0, this was the time to strike. Instead of using a pinch hitter for Ramiro Pena (an option made possible by the promotion of Eduardo Nunez), however, Girardi opted to let his light hitting third baseman face King Felix, who promptly set him down on three pitches before also striking out Gardner to end the threat.

There is no shame in losing to a pitcher like Felix Hernandez, who despite having a 9-10 record should be given serious consideration for the Cy Young award. However, in this case, there was so much more to yesterday’s loss. Of most concern, obviously, is the continued inconsistency of AJ Burnett. Surrendering six runs to a team like the Mariners can only be described as an awful outing, of which Burnett has had way too many. With Andy Pettitte’s return date in doubt and Javier Vazquez going through a dead arm period, the Yankees need AJ Burnett to pick up the slack, but the talented right only continues to frustrate. Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez was forced to leave the game after only one at bat, apparently re-aggravating the calf injury that kept him out of the lineup for three days. The Yankees have no replacement for Arod, so if he is forced to miss significant time, the Yankees’ lineup will be severely diminished (especially in those games when the team stubbornly insists on playing the anemic Francisco Cervelli).

Luckily, the Yankees’ month of mediocrity has been matched by similar stretches of futility from the Rays and Red Sox, so the team still resides in first place with the best record in baseball. However, instead of having things come together as the post season nears, it seems as if the chinks in the Yankees’ armor are growing wider each day.

AL East Standings in August

Team W L Pct RS RA
Orioles 11 8 0.579 77 68
Blue Jays 10 7 0.588 87 74
Rays 10 9 0.526 89 72
Red Sox 10 9 0.526 85 95
Yankees 9 10 0.474 81 74
vs. Felix Hernandez PA BA OBP SLG HR RBI
Brett Gardner LF 5 0.400 0.400 0.400 0 0
Derek Jeter SS 23 0.316 0.409 0.368 0 1
Mark Teixeira 1B 47 0.326 0.362 0.628 3 6
Alex Rodriguez DH 17 0.231 0.353 0.231 0 2
Robinson Cano 2B 23 0.300 0.391 0.450 1 3
Nick Swisher RF 36 0.226 0.333 0.645 4 5
Curtis Granderson CF 32 0.344 0.344 0.500 1 1
Francisco Cervelli C 6 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Ramiro Pena 3B 4 0.000 0.250 0.000 0 0
Total 193 0.285 0.347 0.488 9 18
             
vs. AJ Burnett PA BA OBP SLG HR RBI
Ichiro Suzuki RF 17 0.400 0.438 0.467 0 0
Chone Figgins 2B 13 0.417 0.417 0.667 0 1
Russell Branyan DH 9 0.143 0.333 0.571 1 3
Jose Lopez 3B 14 0.231 0.286 0.231 0 1
Franklin Gutierrez CF 4 0.500 0.500 0.750 0 0
Casey Kotchman 1B 11 0.273 0.273 0.364 0 0
Adam Moore C 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Matt Tuiasosopo LF 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Josh Wilson SS 6 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Total 74 0.294 0.311 0.426 1 5

 

Yankees vs. Mariners    
Season: 2010 Season: 2009 Season: 2008 All-Time
NYY: 4-3 NYY: 6-4 NYY: 7-2 NYY: 201-160

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  Last 10 Last 20 Last 30
Yankees 6-4 10-10 17-13
Mariners 7-3 9-11 13-17

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  Home vs. RHP
Yankees 40-21 51-29
  Road vs. RHP
Mariners 19-41 37-46

Yesterday, Roger Clemens was formally indicted on a litany of charges stemming from alleged dishonesty in the now infamous testimony he gave before Congress on February 18, 2008.

Witness for the prosecution? Roger Clemens faces six count indictment for lying to Congress, but is he just a pawn in a game of lies?

The 19-page indictment charges Clemens with various counts of making false statements, committing perjury and obstructing Congress, all of which add up to a potential sentence of 30 years (although 1-2 years would be more likely). In announcing the indictment, Ronald C. Machen Jr., the United States attorney for the District of Columbia, took the opportunity to grandstand at Clemens’ expense.

Our government cannot function if witnesses are not held accountable for false statements made before Congress. Today the message is clear: if a witness makes a choice to ignore his or her obligation to testify honestly, there will be consequences.” – Ronald C. Machen Jr., U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, as quoted in the New York Times

Considering the number of false statements that are likely made in Congress every day, Mr. Machen’s statement is more than a little amusing. Of course, it’s one thing for Congress (or a fist pounding President) to lie, but quite another for one to lie to Congress. However, that’s a political argument for another time and place.

Clearly, committing perjury is a serious offense and should be prosecuted, even though the hearings involved were nothing more than a publicity stunt thinly veiled as a quest for the common good (another Congressional specialty). So, if Roger Clemens did in deed lie during his testimony to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, he has only himself to blame for the punishment.

But, what if Roger Clemens didn’t lie? Just about every media account of yesterday’s indictment was based on the assumption that Clemens is guilty. Of course, an indictment is far from a conviction, especially in cases of perjury. Contrary to the repeated mantra of baseball’s media and cyberspace elite, evidence heretofore made public does not prove Clemens’ guilt. Why bother with technicalities though?

After the indictment was released, Clemens immediately reiterated his innocence via Twitter. The denial wasn’t really news because Clemens has maintained his innocence and his honesty from the very first day he was implicated in the Mitchell Report. Despite a series of legal setbacks, including the dismisal of his defamation lawsuit against Brain McNamee, Clemens has steadfastly insisted that he did not take steroids or HGH.  The seven-time Cy Young wouldn’t be the first guilty man to declare his innocence, but his unrelenting response to the charges against him should be given at least a little significance.

Judging by how he was as a player, I am not so sure Roger Clemens cares much about prevailing popular opinion. He probably sees the indictment against him as a hitter digging into the box and crowding his part of the plate. Although high and tight chin music won’t work in a court room setting, you can bet Clemens’ defense will be as forceful as one of his 95mph heaters.

There are so many ways the Clemens could defend himself against the charges in the indictment, so it’s not really worth trying the case in a blog. In fact, Clemens could actually be guilty, but still be found innocent because of the high burden of proof attached to the charges.  Although a legal feather in his cap, this reality is actually more damning to Clemens’ legacy. If most people are not even willing to afford him some presumption of innocence, an acquittal probably won’t change their minds anyway. In other words, Clemens has already been tried and convicted in the court of public opinion, which sadly requires very little in the way of evidence.

I don’t expect too many to shed a tear for Clemens. He wasn’t the most popular player when he was active, so for many, his troubles are a source of amusement. What isn’t funny, however, is the toll that is being taken on the history of the game.

Did Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and countless other stars take performance enhancing drugs? Who knows…judging by the number of players who have since admitted to the transgression, there is a chance they all did.  But, does that justify the ongoing witch hunt?

If there is to be blame for the proliferation of performance enhancing drugs in baseball, it should lie squarely on the shoulders of those in charge of making the rules and permitting a culture in which the use of such substances became rampant. You simply can not ignore the context in which these actions were alleged to have been committed. That’s why there is nothing to be gained by persecuting, and now prosecuting, some of the game’s greatest players, but that’s exactly the road Bud Selig decided to travel when he commissioned the Mitchell Report.

Selig’s love for the game of baseball is unimpeachable, so I don’t doubt that his intentions were sincere, but when the Mitchell Report was issued, the commissioner committed nothing less than character assignation of baseball history. Incomplete and based mostly on conjecture, the Mitchell Report not only failed to put the steroid problem in the past, but ensured that it would keep popping up front and center. Yesterday’s news of the indictment against Clemens is only the latest example of this unintended gift that keeps on giving.

Ever since the Mitchell Report was issued, Roger Clemens has long sought to clear his name. Ironically, it is only after a federal indictment that he is finally getting a chance. Even though it won’t restore his reputation, an acquittal on all charges would certainly serve as a form of vindication.  A conviction, however, would not only destroy his legacy, but further harm the game.

PEDs or not, Roger Clemens is one of the best pitchers to every take the mound. In the early years of his retirement, he should be thinking about inductions, not indictments. The real indictment, however, is not of Clemens, but of the rampant hypocrisy in and around the game itself. So many lies have been told.  As a baseball fan, I hope Clemens turns out to be one of the few who has been telling the truth.

vs. Jeremy Bonderman PA BA OBP SLG HR RBI
Brett Gardner LF 3 0.667 0.667 0.667 0 0
Derek Jeter SS 40 0.229 0.308 0.486 3 7
Mark Teixeira 1B 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Robinson Cano 2B 27 0.200 0.259 0.200 0 0
Nick Swisher DH 11 0.111 0.273 0.444 1 2
Jorge Posada C 25 0.227 0.320 0.273 0 3
Curtis Granderson CF 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Austin Kearns RF 8 0.400 0.625 0.800 0 0
Ramiro Pena 3B 3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Total 117 0.225 0.316 0.373 4 12
             
vs. Dustin Moseley PA BA OBP SLG HR RBI
Austin Jackson CF 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Ramon Santiago 2B 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Ryan Raburn RF 2 1.000 1.000 1.000 0 0
Miguel Cabrera 1B 2 0.000 0.500 0.000 0 0
Johnny Damon DH 7 0.333 0.429 0.333 0 0
Jhonny Peralta SS 10 0.300 0.300 0.600 1 1
Brandon Inge 3B 5 0.750 0.600 0.750 0 1
Alex Avila C 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Don Kelly LF 3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0
Total 29 0.385 0.414 0.500 1 2

 

Yankees vs. Tigers    
Season: 2010 Season: 2009 Season: 2008 All-Time
DET: 4-2 NYY: 5-1 DET: 4-2 NYY: 1037-923

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  Last 10 Last 20 Last 30
Yankees 5-5 10-10 16-14
Tigers 5-5 7-13 10-20

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  Home vs. RHP
Yankees 38-21 49-29
  Road vs. RHP
Tigers 20-37 40-45

A few weeks back, the Yankees loss to the Indian’s Josh Tomlin prompted The Captain’s Blog (please excuse the obligatory reference in the “third blog”) to take a look at how the Yankees have fared (since 2000) against pitchers making their major league debut. That inspection revealed a level of futility that matched a general perception held by those who have followed the team closely over the last 10 years.

Another frequent lament of Yankees’ fans is the team also underperforms against pitchers it is facing for the first time. As evidence of this undeniable truth, the Yankees current two game losing streak was suffered at the hands of the Royals’ Bryan Bullington and the Tiger’s Max Scherzer, both of whom were facing the Bronx Bombers for the first time.

A look inside the Yankees’ 2010 performance once again reveals that this common perception is dead on the money. In 10 games against pitchers making their first start against the team, the Yankees are an abysmal 3-7 (see chart below). Those pitchers have not only beaten the Yankees, but pretty much dominated by pitching to an ERA of 3.17 with an average Game Score of 57.1, including five outings above 60.

So, it seems as if another myth has been proven true. But wait. How far back does this trend go? In the analysis of the Yankees record against rookies making their debut, the period of struggles extended back until at least 2000. Unfortunately, the small sample size (11 starts) rendered any conclusion far from meaningful, and that included one more game than this year’s performance against pitchers facing the Yankees for the first time. Clearly, a deeper look is required.

Going back to 2000, 233 pitchers have faced the Yankees for the first time in their careers, finally providing a sample meaningful enough to settle the issue once and for all. And, sure enough, this more in-depth look also paints a picture of futility, but this time not on the part of the Yankees. Instead, it is the first timers who take a beating. Beginning with Scott Schoeneweis’ debut on April 5, 2000 and ending with Scherzer’s victory last night, pitchers taking the mound against the Yankees for the first time have compiled a ghastly 90-143 (.399 winning percentage) record with a 5.40 ERA and average Game Score of 44.7. Now, that’s more like it. Myth debunked.

Record of Pitchers Facing the Yankees for the First Time*

Span W L IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Avg GSc
2010 7 3 56 2/3 39 20 20 16 37 4 3.18 57.1
2008-2010 30 38 364 1/3 371 198 185 148 226 44 4.57 47.8
2000-2010 93 140 1238 2/3 1386 797 744 560 824 194 5.41 44.7

*Based on first appearance against the Yankees within the first 50 starts of a pitcher’s career. Pitchers facing the Yankees for the first time after 50 career starts were not included in this analysis.
Source: Baseball-reference.com 

Undoubtedly, Yankees fans are probably scratching their heads over such numbers. After all, just about every pinstripe loyalist would swear  they can’t be right. Then again, maybe the struggles in “first time” games are a more recent phenomenon, perhaps confined to the Joe Girardi era? Again, no such luck. Since 2008, pitchers facing the Yankees for the first time are 30-38 (23-35 excluding 2010) with an ERA of 4.57 and an average Game Score of 47.8.

Sometimes, the negatives overshadow the positives, and the shocking leave a more lasting impression than the expected. So seems to be the case with regard to the Yankees’ performance against pitchers staring down the barrel of the Bronx Bombers for the first time. Hopefully, Yankees’ fans can now rest a little easier the next time the team faces a new name.

Best and Worst Games By Pitchers Facing the Yankees for the First Time  

Pitcher Date Team GSc
Billy Traber 7/8/2003 CLE 90
Jon Lester 7/3/2008 BOS 83
Bryan Bullington 8/15/2010 KCR 82
Blake Stein 8/2/2000 KCR 73
Max Schrzer 8/16/2010 DET 72
      .
Pitcher Date Team GSc
Mark Mulder 8/10/2000 OAK -4
Doug Davis 8/15/2000 TEX 9
Nick Bierbrodt 8/8/2001 TBD 9
Mark Hendrickson 4/2/2003 TOR 9
Alay Soler 7/2/2006 NYM 9

Source: Baseball-reference.com

During last night’s broadcast, John Flaherty, Paul O’Neill and Michael Kay revisited the often debated question of who has been the Yankees most valuable player during their recent extended run of success: Derek Jeter or Mariano Rivera?  This topic has often been broached on YES broadcasts, including most recently during Jeter’s pursuit of the all-time team hit record, but last night’s mention inspired Joe Posnanski to delve into the issue head long.

Posnanski’s perspective is a worthy one because he not only isn’t a Yankee fan or close follower of the team (in fact, he admittedly dislikes the Bronx Bombers), but also has an eclectic circle of contacts from which to draw reference. So, not surprisingly, he sums up the debate as being one without a correct position, or has he evocatively put it, “a debate of head versus heart or Ginger versus Mary Ann”.

Within that framework, there are many reasonable arguments supporting either candidate. There is no “case closed”. Having said that, Posnanski’s line of reasoning seems to imply that the case for Mariano can only be made from the heart, and that really isn’t true either.

For starters, Posnanski credits Rivera with only 35.8 wins above replacement to Jeter’s 70.6, but according to Baseball-Reference.com, the gap currently sits at 52.3 to 70.3, respectively. So, off the bat, Jeter’s statistical advantage has been narrowed.

Of course, comparing Jeter to Rivera directly ignores the relative value of each player to the other leading candidates at their respective positions. Although both men lead their positions in WAR since 1996, Rivera’s 150% premium over the average total of the remaining members of the top-10 trumps Jeter’s 97% advantage. What’s more, it should also be pointed out had Alex Rodriguez not moved to 3B when he joined the Yankees, he, and not Jeter, would be the clear cut leader at the position.

WAR Leaders by Respective Position, 1996 to Present

Shortstops WAR* . Relievers WAR*
Derek Jeter 70.3   Mariano Rivera 52.3
Alex Rodriguez 61.7   Billy Wagner 28.8
Nomar Garciaparra 41.5   Trevor Hoffman 25.9
Miguel Tejada 40.6   Joe Nathan 22.1
Omar Vizquel 32.1   Francisco Rodriguez 20.4
Rafael Furcal 31.9   Keith Foulke 20.2
Edgar Renteria 31.5   Francisco Cordero 19
Jimmy Rollins 29.8   Tom Gordon 18.6
Hanley Ramirez 27.5   Armando Benitez 17.7
Barry Larkin 24.9   Jonathan Papelbon 15.8
Average of Rank 2-10 35.7   Average of Rank 2-10 20.9
Jeter’s Premium 97%   Rivera’s Premium 150%

*WAR for shortstops derived by summing individual seasons in which position was played at least 80% of the time. WAR for relievers determined by taking pitchers who served as a reliever in at least 80% of games during defined period.
Source: Baseball-Reference.com

Now that statistical picture has been muddied a little, it’s time to introduce another variable left out of Posnanski’s equation…the post season. Unfortunately, WAR is not a statistic that is calculated for the post season (at least not to my knowledge), so comparing a pitcher and a hitter becomes tricky. Still, it is worth a shot.

Post Season Statistics, 2005 to Present

  G IP W L ERA SV H ER WHIP
Mariano Rivera 88 133.1 8 1 0.74 39 82 11 0.773
  G PA R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG
Derek Jeter 138 637 99 175 20 55 0.313 0.383 0.479

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

The first thing that jumps out about Mariano Rivera’s post season record is that come October he pretty much transforms into an everyday player. In fact, Rivera’s 501 batters faced aren’t that far off from Jeter’s 637 plate appearances, at least not in terms of a reliever/position player comparison. Relative playing time aside, Rivera’s post season statistics absolutely jump off the page. His ERA of 0.74 and WHIP of 0.773 speak for themselves, but the most astounding figure is his 80% out conversion rate (400 outs in 501 batters faced). Meanwhile, Jeter’s OPS of .863 is certainly impressive, but far from the jaw dropping level of performance put forth by Rivera. Does this difference overcome the regular season WAR advantage enjoyed by Jeter? Who knows, but you’d have to think it narrows the gap at least somewhat.

As great as Jeter has been, the case for Mariano Rivera being the most valuable Yankee over the recent dynastic period seems stronger. That’s not to say that Jeter isn’t in the running, but unlike Posnanski, I would suggest his argument is bolstered less by the brain and more by the heart. Regardless of what side one chooses, however, what is abundantly clear is the New York Yankees have been incredibly lucky to have both.

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