Derek Jeter has been a popular target of cynics for most of his career. The criticisms were mostly whispers when the short stop was in his prime, but they have crescendoed during his inevitable decline phase. Since crowing the loudest in the first half of 2011, however, Jeter’s detractors have been quieted by the Captain’s resurgence, which once again has him ranked among the best offensive short stops in the game.
Jeter hasn’t turned the clock back this much, but the short stop’s bat has found the fountain of youth this season.
Jeter’s wOBA of .343 in 2012 is tops among all short stops in the American League and second only to Ian Desmond. According to baseball-reference’s oWAR, which takes into account batting and base running on a position-based scale, the Captain also ranks as the second most productive offensive player on the Yankees. Jeter has even normalized his split deficiency against right handers, raising his wOBA and OBP to respectable rates of .318 and .344 against pitchers throwing from the like-side. Over his last 162 games dating back to July 30 of last season, the future Hall of Famer has compiled a line of .326/.372/.429, which, considering the depressed offensive environment, isn’t that far removed from his career rates.
From a historical perspective, Jeter’s current OPS+ of 109 ranks eighth best among all 38-year old-plus shorts stops (at least 75% of games played at the position) in a qualified season. However, all seven of the seasons that rank ahead of him belong to either Honus Wagner or Luke Appling, so the Captain’s late-career resurgence has put him in a very select and elite class.
Top-OPS+ Seasons by a Short Stop, Age 38 or Older, Since 1901
Note: Includes qualified seasons only.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
To be fair to his critics, Jeter’s defense has been the foundation of their jest. Putting aside metrics like UZR, which are inherently flawed, it does seem as if the Captain has lost a step in the field. Considering his range was never among the best during his prime, Jeter’s defense may be reaching the point where his ability to play short stop will be predicated entirely upon his offensive production. Even though fWAR insists that defensive wizard Brendan Ryan (and his wOBA of .263) is just as valuable as Jeter, and bWAR rates him as being nearly four-times more valuable (3.3 versus 0.9), it’s hard to imagine a GM or manager preferring to start the Mariners’ short stop if given a choice. In other words, Jeter’s bat still more than makes more up for his short comings with the glove.
One interesting aside to Jeter’s 2012 offensive revival involves a clause in his contract that increases the value of his 2014 player option by $1.5 million if he wins a Silver Slugger. If Jeter maintains his current level of performance, he seems all but assured of winning that award, which is no small consideration if the Yankees remain steadfast in their attempt to dip below the luxury tax threshold in 2014. Based on that concern, Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner might be not be reveling in Jeter’s rebound as much as you’d think.
At some point, Derek Jeter’s bat will go into a permanent slumber. Father Time always wins in the end. However, Jeter’s time hasn’t come just yet, giving Yankee fans one more reason to rejoice. And, to those pining for his demise, well, there’s always the age-old baseball lament: “wait ‘til next year”. Sooner hasn’t worked out, but it’s bound to come later.
On the positive side of the 2014 bonus situation, ARod’s injury likely means he won’t reach his 714 HR milestone until 2015. As long as he manages to get to 660 in 2013 (he needs 16 right now – he had 16 & 15 last season and this season, both partial seasons due to injury, so getting to 660 next year is possible if he’s healthy), they’ll save the $6M bonus that they likely would have had to pay him (or at least planned for in managing the luxury tax cap) in 2014 otherwise. The net of ARod and Jeter at least comes out to saving $4.5M.
But I’m not entirely sure how Jeter’s contract counts toward the 2014 AAV. Cot’s mentions that the present-day AAV for Jeter is about $16M. That seems to assume that he will get the full $17M in 2014 and applies it to the 4 year deal to get an AAV of $16.25M ($15M + $16M + $17M + $17M = $65M over 4 years). It also mentions that Jeter has other incentives in 2014 that could get him up to $17M if the 2011-13 escalators don’t get him there (which they won’t due to 2011 results already). That has me thinking that the AAV will be $16.25M until 2014, and if he doesn’t achieve the full $17MM in 2014, maybe the team will get some relief against the luxury tax cap (i.e. if he only gets the base $8M in 2014, they will get $9M in relief that year for a $7.25M tax cap hit in 2014 compared to the $16.25M AAV in the first three years).
Do you have any idea how that works? I’ve looked around online, but have had trouble finding anything concrete.
The new CBA considers Jeter’s incentives to be triggering events under the Special Covenant clause. Any increase in salary resulting from these events is applied only to the year in which they are paid out (unlike performance bonuses, which are applied to the year they are earned). So, in this case, any increase in Jeter’s 2014 salary will be applied directly to that year’s luxury cap.
I am pretty sure the reason Cot’s has Jeter’s present day AAV at $16 million (despite there being $51mn guaranteed over three seasons) is because $2 million is deferred without interest in each season.
Thanks for the info. That sucks for the Yanks’ 2014 budget… It sounds like he could cost up to $23M against the cap in 2014 if he gets paid the full $17M that year ($14M AAV + $9M in increased salary/bonuses that year). Is that right?
I’m not sure what the 2014 bonuses are that would let him get to $17M though, so maybe he’s not likely to earn them.
The 2014 option maxes out at $17 million. Cots has the bonus schedule.
I know the option is $17M max based on either 2011-2013 awards or 2014 performance bonuses (I don’t see the specifics of the 2014 bonuses on Cot’s, just the 2011-2013 escalators – he can hit $17M in 2014 either way – That’s why I’m not sure how feasible hitting the 2014 bonuses are). But if the AAV is $14M without the bonuses and the $9M in bonuses all count in 2014, I think they can get hit with $23M against the luxury tax cap in 2014 if he gets the max (even though he only actually gets paid $17M that year).
If he got no bonuses, the AAV would still be $14M, even though he only gets paid $8M that year.
Cot’s has the AAV at $16 million, but upon further inspection, I think that’s wrong. I get about $13.8 million based on the following (used a 3% discount rate, but it could be higher or lower):
2011: $13mn salary + 1.8mn PV deferred comp
2012: $14mn salary + 1.8mn PV deferred comp
2013: $15mn salary + 1.8mn PV deferred comp
2014: $8mn salary
Based on my interpretation of the new CBA, 2014 is considered a guaranteed year, and therefore included in the AAV, because it is a player option and the buyout of $3mn is less than half of the $8mn salary.
If I am correct, and Jeter exercises the player option, the Yankees already have $14mn on the books for 2014, so they’d only have to worry about having an additional $3mn tacked via escalators (which means the silver slugger would only become a factor if Jeter meets other thresholds too) because the ceiling on the option year is $17mn.
I agree with everything you said except the last paragraph… The bonuses that could be paid in 2014 would total $9M, and the full $9M would could in 2014 in addition to the AAV of $13.8M. That still sounds like $22.8M counting toward the luxury tax cap in 2014. There is a $17M max on his 2014 salary, but that doesn’t mean there is a $17M cap on how much counts toward the luxury tax that year.
“would could” should be “would count”
You’re absolutely right…the $9 million extra would be in addition to the $14 million AAV because of what I stated in the first reply
What people don’t take into account when assessing Jeter’s range in the field is his ability come in and make the play on a slow rolling grounder. He’s maybe the best that’s ever been at that, and still as good as ever. He may cost you a few hits to his left and right, but he probably takes away on those rollers.
Jonathan- in an area that has no statistical comparison (coming in and making the play on a slow moving grounder) how can you say he’s the best even this year? Have you watched every shortstop? Have you also watched every ss this decade? This entire century? From the start of baseball!?
Sometimes there are arguments over best ever with statistics- and even then it’s hard to compare differences in rules, styles, and even stats. Do you watch games and yell- this is the greatest moment ever!?
[…] one has harped on Derek Jeter’s baseball mortality more than I have (see here, here, and here). And, who can blame us? Because Jeter has been so good…and all good things must come to an […]