The Captain's Blog

Since the start of the most recent dynasty, the Yankees have distinguished themselves in the third game of a postseason series, posting a .677 winning percentage in these pivotal contests. Although the Bronx Bombers have had great success almost across the board in the postseason, game three has been when the team is at its best.

Yankees’ Postseason Winning Percentage by Series Game, 1996-Present

Note: Includes all postseason series.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

One reason for the Yankees’ supremacy in game threes has been the depth of its rotation, which has always allowed the team to have an ace in the hole. For example, in four of the previous six game-three match-ups, Joe Girardi was able to fall back on Andy Pettitte, who just so happens to have the most postseason wins in baseball history. That’s not a bad consolation. Before Girardi, Joe Torre also enjoyed the same luxury. In addition to Pettitte, the list of the Yankees’ game three starters since 1996 reads like a who’s who of recent pitching.

Yankees’ Game-Three Starters in the Postseason, 1996-Present

Note: Includes all postseason series.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

With the ALDS tied at one game a piece, and Pettitte having already started (and lost) game two, the Yankees turn to Hiroki Kuroda, who led the team in wins, innings pitched, and qualified ERA. The 37-year old right hander also saved his best pitching for the Bronx, going 11-6 with a 2.72 ERA at Yankee Stadium, while limiting opposing hitters to an OPS of .615. So, once again, it looks as if Joe Girardi has the perfect man on the mound for tonight’s swing game against the Orioles.

Considering how well Kuroda has pitched for the Yankees this season, it would be hard not to be optimistic about the team’s chances of adding to its game-three supremacy. However, there are a few reasons for caution. Coming down the stretch, Kuroda stumbled a bit, posting a 4.44 ERA and .801 OPS against in his final eight starts. What’s more, Kuroda pitched a career-high 219 innings, even dating back to his time in Japan, which introduces a little worry about the veteran possibly running out of gas. In all fairness, it’s also worth noting that Kuroda was able to keep the team in each of his final eight starts by never allowing more than four earned runs. However, tonight, that might not be good enough.

Miguel Gonzalez stood tall against the Yankees in two regular season starts. Can he do it again? (Photo: US PRESSWIRE)

Miguel Gonzalez is the Orioles’ unlikely answer to Kuroda. Before the start of the season, Gonzalez was a journeyman minor leaguer whose signing was little more than a spring training afterthought (it is hard to find a published report about the acquisition that isn’t in Spanish). However, since joining the rotation for good in July, Gonzalez has emerged as arguably Baltimore’s best starter. In fact, even that’s selling him short. In his 10 starts over the last two months, Gonzalez has allowed more than two earned runs on only two occasions. During that span, the righty’s ERA of 2.49 is the sixth lowest in the American League. In other words, it appears as if Buck Showalter also has an ace up his sleeve.

Another note of caution comes from Gonzalez’ regular season performance against the Yankees. Not only did the right hander win both starts (including one against Kuroda), but he did so by limiting the Bronx Bombers to an OPS of .584 to go along with an astonishing K/BB ratio of 17. Gonzalez also induced the Yankee hitters to swing and miss at an alarming rate. The team’s whiff percentages of 17.1% and 12.4% in each of Gonzalez’ two starts were well in excess of the Yankees’ 8.9% season rate as well as the right hander’s cumulative 8.7% recording. Could this simply be a bad match-up for the Yankees? Although it’s a limited sample, the disparity adds another level of intrigue to tonight’s third meeting.

Based on his season-long track record, Kuroda is a good bet to at least keep the Yankees in tonight’s game, but the bigger question seems to be whether the lineup will be able to score against Gonzalez.  So, instead of focusing too narrowly on Kuroda’s performance in the early innings, a more indicative sign might come from the Yankees’ at bats. If they continue to swing and miss at an extraordinary rate, it could be a long night for the Bronx Bombers, regardless of how well Kuroda performs. With two Aces in each hand, the offense can’t afford to be a Joker.