Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays were the toast of Spring Training, compiling a 24-7 record that ranked as the second best in a non-labor shortened exhibition season since 1984. This spring, the Royals did them one better, ending the pre-season with a 25-7 mark that has optimism on the rise in Kansas City.
If Royals fans are looking for good omens, the 2012 Blue Jays are not the answer. After having such a strong spring, Toronto was immediately side tracked by an onslaught of injuries that culminated in a disappointing 73-89 finish. The end result was a 32% decline in regular season winning percentage when compared to the exhibition schedule, which represented the fourth largest drop off in 30 years.
Teams with ST Winning Percentages of At Least 70%, Since 1984
Note: Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com
Although the Blue Jays proved to be a bust after posting a strong exhibition record in 2012, Royals fans need not despair. Toronto may have been an exception, but teams with a winning percentage over .700 in the spring have generally done well once the calendar turned to April. Combined, the 15 teams that won at least 70% of their exhibition games yielded a winning percentage of .538 in the regular season, and eight from the group wound up making the playoffs, including the Tigers last year.
ST Winning Percentage Distribution of Playoff Teams, Since 1984
Note: Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com
If the more cynical Royals fans remain skeptical about their team’s outlook for 2013, it’s perfectly understandable. Not only does the small sample size put a damper on any positive reading of spring training data, but in 1999, the Royals followed up a 22-9 March campaign with a disastrous 64-97 regular season. It’s been 28 years since Kansas City last made the postseason, the longest current drought in baseball, so a month of exhibition games isn’t going to dispel three decades of futility. However, even if the team’s spring record is nothing more than a grain of salt, Royals fans shouldn’t be ashamed if they allow it to wet their appetite for the upcoming season. Hope springs eternal for every team on Opening Day. In Kansas City, maybe this time, it will last a little bit longer.
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