It’s not how well you pitch, but when you pitch well. Just ask Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes.
Since making their major league debuts in 2007, Bailey and Hughes have compiled nearly identical career numbers. The similarity is fitting when you consider the two right handers have been closely aligned since each pitcher was selected in the first round of the 2004 draft and subsequently regarded as can’t-miss prospects. However, there was nothing comparable about the contracts signed by each pitcher this winter.
Phil Hughes vs. Homer Bailey: Relative Career Performance
Note: Rates represent the comparison between each pitcher’s aggregate performance in a given statistic.
Source: baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com
Although Bailey’s and Hughes’ aggregate statistics are indistinguishable, the underlying trends are unmistakable. Despite battling injuries early in his career, Hughes managed to establish himself more quickly than his counterpart in Cincinnati. His gradual progress culminated in an All Star quality first half in 2010, at which point it seemed as if the Yankees’ right hander was poised for the stardom that so many had projected for him.
Phil Hughes vs. Homer Bailey: 2007 to the 2010 All Star Break
Source: baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com
While Hughes was pitching in the All Star Game, Bailey was sitting home with a 5.51 ERA, which was actually a shade higher than the rate he had posted over the first 250 innings of his career. If Hughes looked like a breakout, Bailey was more like a bust. However, from that point forward, each pitcher experienced a reversal of fortune…literally.
Phil Hughes vs. Homer Bailey: 2010 All Star Break to 2013
Source: baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com
Since the 2010 All Star break, Bailey has clearly outpitched Hughes, but is he now $80 million better? That’s what the Reds must think. At $105 million for six years, Bailey’s new contract extension has a total value over four times greater than the modest three-year deal Hughes signed with Minnesota (a multiple made even more significant by the fact that Hughes was a free agent, while Bailey still had one year of team control left).
The comparison between Bailey and Hughes is both a curiosity and a caution. After all, much of Bailey’s improvement has been attributed to increased fastball velocity, which, according to fangraphs.com, jumped from 92.4 mph to 94.1 mph. If Bailey can sustain his new found arm strength, he just might justify the Reds’ commitment. However, it’s worth noting that if his fastball falls back to prior levels, he’ll once again be on par with Hughes, whose velocity in 2013 averaged 92.3 mph.
While the Reds’ patience with Bailey paid off for both the team and pitcher, Hughes’ bad timing cost him the lucrative contract extension he may envisioned signing at the 2010 All Star break. Now, the question remains whether Bailey’s new deal will represent a clean break from his career long comparison to Hughes. Unless the former Yankee has a renaissance in Minnesota, the Reds better hope so.
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