Francisco Cervelli is the hottest thing in Tampa. The Yankees’ back-up catcher has been tearing up the grapefruit league, and, apparently, it hasn’t gone unnoticed around the league. With several teams in the market for a backup catcher, trade rumors have begun to swirl around Cervelli, and his performance so far this spring has validated the chatter.
Is there a pumped up trade market for Francisco Cervelli? (Photo: AP)
The idea of Cervelli as a trade chip has to be a little amusing to some Yankee fans. For six years (yes, six), the 28-year old catcher has been more of a punch line than a performer. However, if the Yankees are able to deal Cervelli and receive something of value in return, the organization, and the catcher himself, could end up having the last laugh.
If other teams think Cervelli has potential, what do the Yankees see? Could the backup be a late bloomer? If so, maybe the Yankees shouldn’t be eager to trade him? Those are questions the team’s evaluators will have to answer, but it’s worth noting that history doesn’t like Cervelli’s break-out chances.
There haven’t been many catchers like Cervelli throughout baseball history. Since 1914, only 44 backstops have played in at least parts of five seasons before the age of 28 while compiling 400 to 800 plate appearances. These seldom used journeymen catchers have usually been very poor hitters, as 31 from the group posted an OPS+ below 75 during the span. Cervelli, whose OPS+ is 90, counts himself among the cream of this dubious crop.
Before and After: Little Used Journeyman Backups
Note: Includes players with 80% games at a catcher, between 400 and 800 plate appearances, and an OPS+ of at least 75 in five or more seasons before their age-28 season.
Source: baseball-reference.com
With the exception of Al Evans and Art Wilson (whose success came in the Federal League), Cervelli’s comps failed to improve upon their performance after turning 28, and half ended up having an abbreviated second half to their careers. That doesn’t mean Cervelli can’t break from this mold, but if the Yankees are feeling a tug, their reticence would be pulling against precedent.
Unless Brian McCann gets injured, Cervelli won’t get much playing time this year. However, because other potential backup catchers (John Ryan Murphy and Austin Romine) have options, the Yankees do not need to trade him. If a roster crunch was looming, the team might be forced to take a best offer for Cervelli, but their current flexibility should allow Brian Cashman to play the field, which, reportedly, has teams like the Mariners, White Sox and Diamondbacks in the market for a catcher.
The key question for the Yankees is not whether Cervelli is a breakout candidate, and their motivation shouldn’t be to fleece a desperate team. Either expectation is unreasonable. Instead, the equation is much simpler. If Cashman can obtain another player with the potential to contribute greater marginal value than Cervelli (a calculation that could be as much about Murphy or Romine as Cervelli), he should pull the trigger, if not immediately, then eventually. The demand in the market will determine Cashman’s leverage, but the Yankees’ GM has to be careful about overplaying his hand. Cervelli’s trade value may never be this high again, so if the Yankees don’t cash in, the joke will be on them.
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