There’s a wolf in Bud Selig’s hen house of parity. It just happens to be wearing sheep’s clothing. With a winning percentage of only .600, and a roster lacking many household names, the Oakland Athletics don’t exactly resemble a juggernaut. However, in complete defiance of league-wide mediocrity, or perhaps because of it, the A’s are quietly having a season for the ages.
Top-10 Teams Ranked by Relative Run Prevention, 1901-2014
Note: Rates are not park adjusted. League R/G rates are either AL or NL, based on each respective team.
Source: baseball-reference.com and proprietary calculations
The Athletics currently lead the American League in both runs scored and runs allowed, and, in both cases, by a healthy margin. In fact, the A’s relative ability to both score and prevent runs has been historic. Only 4% of all teams since 1901 have outscored the league average by a higher margin than the Athletics are currently trumping their AL counterparts. And, that’s nothing compared to the stinginess of the team’s pitching staff. Oakland’s astounding ERA of 2.83 is impressive enough, but, when compared to the league average, it yields the fifth best ratio in modern major league history (out of 2,376 seasons). Summing the Athletics’ prowess at scoring and preventing runs yields a relative advantage of over 45%, which is also the fifth best mark all time.
Top-10 Teams Ranked by Relative Run Scoring + Run Prevention, 1901-2014
Note: Rates are not park adjusted and represent the sum of each team’s relative rate of scoring and allowing runs vs. its league’s aggregate.
Source: baseball-reference.com and proprietary calculations
If the Athletics’ record reflected its run differential, the AL West race would be over. However, Oakland has underperformed its expected winning percentage by a whopping seven games, which currently ranks as the largest deficit in major league history. Is the discrepancy the result of bad luck, or representative of a chink in the Athletics’ armor? Statistically, it’s hard to find any blemishes on the A’s résumé, but it’s worth noting that drastic underperformance of run differential is seldom the hallmark of a very good team.
10 Largest Pythagorean Deficits, 1901-2014
Note: Deficits are a comparison of actual records vs. expected winning percentage based on run differential. Source: baseball-reference.com and proprietary calculations
Are the Athletics really a great team, or a beneficiary of parity? Does it matter? Even though Oakland’s high marks may be the result of grading on the curve, the team is nonetheless performing, and, ironically, underperforming at all-time levels. Where those two divergent paths meet from a historical perspective will be determined over the rest of the season, but whether the Athletics are the juggernaut suggested by their aggregate statistics, or the more modest contender represented by their win-loss record, the road to the AL pennant seems headed through Oakland.
The underperformance can be hung almost entirely on Jim Johnson. If he just was magically gone from the season they would have 4 or 5 more wins. He has really blown it, as evidence by the teams willingness to shop him to the Marlins a few weeks back. I believe he has cost them a game in the last 2 series.
Hi William,
Tried sending an email but it got bounced back.
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[…] well, the A’s winning percentage lagged their run expectancy by a historic margin. In mid-June, the deficit was the largest in the modern era, suggesting that, even though Oakland had the best record in the major leagues, the best was yet to […]