The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers.” – Earl Weaver
Earl Weaver would have loved the 2015 Yankees…well, at least their offense. Perhaps more than any other lineup in history, the Bronx Bombers have taken the Hall of Fame manager’s most noted philosophy to heart.
While skipper of Baltimore, Weaver’s Orioles averaged just over 20 round trippers of three runs or more, but this year’s Bronx Bombers have slugged their way well past that mark. Carlos Beltran’s homer on Thursday was the Yankees’ 47th long ball with at least two men on base, trailing only the 1996 Mariners and 2000 Cardinals for most since at least 1950 (the period from which play-by-play data is mostly complete). And, because the Yankees have been just as good at preventing these high scoring blasts, the team’s differential of 31 currently stands as the all-time best mark.
Top- and Bottom-10 Teams in Three-Plus HR Differential, 1950-2015
Note: Data is as of September 26, 2015 and dates back to 1950, the year for which play-by-play data is mostly complete. Data labels represent the differential. Includes three-run homers and grand slams.
Source: baseball-reference.com
The Yankees’ ability to hit home runs with the bases crowded is even more extraordinary when considered in greater context. By comparing the Yankees’ and MLB’s relative rate of home runs based on the number of men on base, this year’s Bronx Bombers are clearly an outlier. With a home run in 5.4% of all plate appearances with at least two men on base, the Yankees have essentially scored 60 extra runs on the long ball than would normally be expected. It’s impossible to determine how many of those runs would have been recouped with different outcomes, but we know for sure the Yankees couldn’t have done better.
MLB and Yankees Relative HR Rates, 2000 to 2015
Note: Data is as of September 26, 2015. Includes three-run homers and grand slams compared to all plate appearances with either two men on base or the bases loaded.
Source: baseball-reference.com
The Yankees inflated percentage of home runs also stands out relative to other teams who have had success hitting long balls with two or more men on base. Among the top-10 in this category, eight approximated their home rate with fewer than two men on base, with the other exception, the 1995 Mariners, outperforming at a lower level than this year’s Yankees.
Relative HR Rates for Top-10 Three-Plus HR Teams, 1950-2015
Note: Data is as of September 26, 2015 and dates back to 1950, the year for which play-by-play data is mostly complete. Includes three-run homers and grand slams compared to all plate appearances with either two men on base or the bases loaded.
Source: baseball-reference.com
The Yankees’ abnormal production with two or more men on base has been a big part of this year’s offensive resurgence, which has yielded the largest year-over-year increase in runs per game since 1936. Of course, that’s mostly attributable to last year’s nadir, but, by scoring 110% more than the league average, the 2015 Bronx Bombers not only compare favorably to themselves, but every other team outside Canada. The only problem is their improved output hasn’t been consistent. With one of the highest standard deviations in franchise history, as well as a run distribution profile that resembles 2014 on the low end, the Yankees have left fans scratching their heads trying to figure out which offense will appear on a nightly basis.
Yankees’ R/G, Average and Standard Deviation 1901 to 2015
Note: Data is as of September 26, 2015.
Source: baseball-reference.com
Yankees R/G Distribution, 2014 vs. 2015
Note: Data is as of September 26, 2015.
Source: baseball-reference.com
The ironic thing about the Yankees’ offensive inconsistency is it’s probably the reason the team has remained competitive. After all, without the outbursts, this year’s run production would have been just as consistently poor as last year’s. That brings us back full circle to the team’s success hitting homers with men on base. With only 10 games left in the season, there’s no point looking a gift horse in the mouth. If a little bit of luck, and a lot of good timing, have played a role in the Yankees’ improvement, so be it. However, as the Yankees evaluate this season with an eye toward next, the offense’s inconsistency shouldn’t be ignored. Otherwise, a return to 2014 could be in the future.
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