What happened to the Yankees offense? How could a team that scored the second most runs in baseball last year look so anemic this season, especially after making an obvious upgrade at second base? These have been common questions surrounding the Bronx Bombers in April, but is the bemusement warranted?
Yankees Relative Offensive Production, wRC+ and R/G vs. A.L. Average, 1901-2016
Source: baseball-reference.com, fangraphs and proprietary calculation
The Yankees’ offense rebounded well in 2015, reversing two seasons of production that rivaled franchise lows. However, the team’s number two ranking in terms of runs scored exaggerates the improvement. As show in the chart above (see red markers), although the Bronx Bombers runs per game vs. the AL average and wRC+ were both above the baseline, they weren’t nearly as high as a typical high-powered Yankees’ offense. What’s more, the gap between relative run production and wRC+ was also greater than usual, suggesting that the Yankees may have out punched their weight. So, not only was the Bronx Bombers’ run total less impressive on a relative basis than its ranking would indicate, but it may not have accurately represented the team’s true offensive prowess. In fact, with early 2016 returns looking much like 2013 and 2014, if there’s an outlier, it might be last season.
How did the Yankees’ offense outproduce the sum of its parts? By being in the right place at the right time. Last season, the Bronx Bombers belted 47 home runs with two or more runners on base, the most in franchise history since at least 1974 (the period from which play-by-play data is complete). These multi-home run blasts accounted for nearly 20% of all round trippers and 22% of all runs scored, rates that were at or among franchise highs and which easily trumped the MLB aggregates of 13% and 10%, respectively. Even compared to the team’s historic proclivity for hitting the long ball, the number of runs generated from homers with more two or men on base was abnormally high.
Allocation of Yankees’ Home Runs by Men on Base, 1996-2016
Source: baseball-reference.com data and proprietary calculation
Multi-HRs and Related Runs Scored as a Percentage of Total, 1996-2016
Source: baseball-reference.com data and proprietary calculation
Assuming it isn’t a skill to hit home runs with the bases crowded, and by extension, such abnormally high percentages are unlikely to repeat, it’s fair to ask how many fewer runs would the Yankees have scored in 2015 if their home run hitters didn’t have such impeccable timing? As illustrated below, based on the league wide rate, about 20-40 fewer runs would have dented the plate last year, enough to drop the Yankees from second to as far as tied for sixth in the MLB ranking. Even at the high end, a 40-run adjustment doesn’t turn the 2015 Yankees lineup into a lightweight offense, but it suggests the baseline for comparison to this year is much lower. That’s particularly important because when an offense is built on so many precarious assumptions, every run counts.
Hypothetical Impact of Fewer Home Runs with Multiple Men on Base
Note: MLB Multi-HR rate is percentage of all home runs with two or more men on base. Weighted runs per Multi-HR is based on the Yankees distribution of three-run homers and grand slams. Replacement Runs are the number of runs that would have scored if the multi-HR was replaced with a HR with the stated number of men on base (1.5 representing an average).
Source: baseball-reference.com data and proprietary calculation
It’s still early. As Joe Girardi has repeated countless time, the Yankees have only played one-eighth of their season, so there’s plenty of time for the offense to rebound. However, if it doesn’t, no one should be surprised. The Yankees are not a juggernaut enduring an inexplicable decline, but an inconsistent team experiencing a reversal of some of the good fortune it enjoyed last year. In other words, the Yankees’ offensive struggles really aren’t hard to explain. They are, after all, a product of design.
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