The Chicago Cubs are off to arguably the greatest start in MLB history. In the modern era, only nine other teams have had more victories than the Cubs after 26 games, but only two also boasted a better run differential. Can the Cubbies keep it up? If so, the north-siders could end up scoring and preventing runs at historic rates relative to the league average.
Teams with the Best Run Differential After 26 Games, 1901-Present
Source: baseball-reference.com
Superstition will probably temper enthusiasm in Chicago, but bigger obstacles along the Cubs’ path to the World Series are the pitching staffs of the Mets and Nationals. Like the Cubs, both teams have posted historic relative rates of run prevention, and there’s every reason to expect those trends to continue.
Top-10 Best and Worst RA/G vs. League Average, 1901 to Present
Note: Each team’s rate is compared to the average of their individual league. The baseline is 100%. A rate below represents the amount by which the team has over-performed.
Source: baseball-reference.com and proprietary calculations
In the American League, the crosstown White Sox have also pitched at historic levels. After 28 games, the White Sox have allowed nearly 27% fewer runs than the A.L. average, a rate that would rank second all time in the junior circuit, behind only the 1939 Yankees. At the plate, the Red Sox are the ones drawing historic comparisons. If Boston continues scoring nearly 30% more than the A.L. average, they’ll rank fifth all time among American League teams and within the top-10 overall.
On the flip side of the success mentioned above is the Atlanta Braves, who have scored almost 32% fewer runs than the N.L. average. If the Braves maintain their current futile pace, they would rank behind only the 1942 Phillies when it comes to having an anemic offense. And, speaking of Philadelphia, this year’s Phillies’ lineup isn’t far behind Atlanta. After 28 games, Philadelphia has scored 28% fewer runs than the league aggregate.
Top-10 Best and Worst RS/G vs. League Average, 1901 to Present
Note: Each team’s rate is compared to the average of their individual league. The baseline is 100%. A rate above represents the amount by which the team has over-performed.
Source: baseball-reference.com and proprietary calculations
In addition to the good and the bad, there’s also the lucky. And, as it turns out, the Phillies also qualify in this regard. Somehow, the Phillies have overcome their paltry offense to post a 16-12 record, which represents a winning percentage over 17% higher than what would be expected based on run differential. This gap would easily represent the largest in modern MLB history, so, if the Phillies are to continue as the game’s biggest surprise, they’ll have to make sure their luck doesn’t run out.
Top-10 Luckiest and Unluckiest Teams, Based on Pythagorean Differential, 1901-Present
Note: Pythagorean differential is the gap between actual and expected winning percentage, the latter of which is based on run differential. A negative figure represents an unlucky team, and a positive figure represents a lucky team.
Source: baseball-reference.com and proprietary calculations
In the American League, the Royals have also outperformed their expected winning percentage by a considerable amount. In fact, Kansas City’s Pythagorean surplus would rank as the fourth highest all time. Although exceeding statistical estimates has become part of the Royals’ mystique, the current rate of 8% is more than double Kansas City’s 3% over-performance in each of the previous two seasons.
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, the Royals’ good fortune hasn’t made its way east on I-70. St. Louis’ over 13% Pythagorean deficit currently represents the widest rate of misfortune in the modern era, something the Cardinals can ill afford with the Cubs sharing their division.
Yankees’ RS/G vs. A.L. Average, 1901 to Present
Note: Black markers indicate current season and all years with a rate as low or lower. Rates below 100% represent the amount by which the Yankees’ runs scored has lagged the league average.
Source: baseball-reference.com and proprietary calculations
In the Bronx, the Yankees aren’t threatening history on a league-wide scale, but they are testing the franchise’s lower limits. After 25 games, the Yankees have scored almost 12% fewer runs than the A.L. average, which would rank as the seventh lowest mark in franchise history. Even more alarming, however, is the fact that this year’s struggles aren’t far off from the ones that lasted all season in 2013 and 2014. So, if we’re playing “which one of these things is not like the other,” there’s a good chance the Yankees’ 2015 offensive performance is the outlier.
Yankees’ RA/G vs. A.L. Average, 1901 to Present
Note: Black markers indicate current season and all years with a rate as high or higher. Rates above 100% represent the amount by which the Yankees’ runs allowed has exceeded the league average.
Source: baseball-reference.com and proprietary calculations
While everyone has been heaping scorn on the Yankees’ offense, the pitching staff has escaped deserved criticism. When compared to the A.L. average, the Yankees have actually been worse at preventing runs. The Bronx Bombers’ pitching staff has allowed 15% more runs than their league counterparts, a rate that is not only worse than the offense’s under-performance, but which would rank fifth worst in franchise history.
Yankees’ Historical wRC+ and ERA- Rates, 1901 to Present
Note: Click the links for a definition of wRC+ and ERA-.
Source: fangraphs.com
Even when using park adjusted composite metrics, instead of run scoring, the 2016 Yankees’ pitching staff has been an even bigger laggard than the offense. Then again, the opposition’s ability to score against the Yankees isn’t solely the fault of the team’s hurlers. A porous defense, which ranks worst in the A.L. in defensive efficiency, has undoubtedly contributed to the team’s inability to keep crooked numbers off the scoreboard.
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