Do spring training records matter? The answer often depends on whom you ask, and how well their team is currently doing during the exhibition season. But, what does the data say?
Top-10 Spring Training Records, 1984-2016
Note: Excludes the 1990 and 1995 exhibition seasons, which were shortened by work stoppages. Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: espn.com, mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com
Yankees’ Historical Spring Training Performance, 1962 – Present
Note: 1995 data excludes record compiled by replacement players.
Source: Yankees media notes (h/t @LouDiPietroYES )
With the Yankees in the midst of a strong spring campaign, Joe Girardi is likely to find some virtue in March success. However, a more dismissive attitude from John Gibbons should be expected. Not only have the Blue Jays struggled during this exhibition season, but it wasn’t too long ago when Toronto parlayed a historic spring performance into a fourth place finish during the regular season. There’s enough anecdotal evidence to support both sides of the debate, so let’s look at the aggregate data.
Distribution of Playoff Teams by Spring Training Winning Percentage, 1996-2016
Note: Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations. Chart compares playoff and non-playoff teams within defined winning percentage range.
Source: espn.com, mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com
During the wild card era (excluding the lockout shortened 1995 season), there has been a positive relationship between teams that have made the playoffs and their spring record, especially at the extreme ends of the spectrum. Of the 109 teams whose March winning percentage fell below .400, only 17, or 15%, rebounded to earn a postseason slot. As spring training results improved, however, so too did the incidence of making the playoffs. This trend culminated in a 54% postseason rate for teams that posted a .700 or better winning percentage in March. There are exceptions, but the trend is clear. Having a great spring is justification for optimism, and, even more importantly, an awful March is cause for legitimate concern.
Aggregate Regular Season Records by Spring Training Winning Percentage, 1984-2016 /1996-2016
Note: Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: espn.com, mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com
Despite being the ultimate regular season goal, postseason berths might not be the best barometer of how well spring training results translate after April (i.e., teams with good records often miss the postseason). Using the combined regular season record of all teams within a spring training performance cohort, however, yields a similar trend. Beginning with those teams that posted March winning percentages below .300, regular season success gradually increases, though not as exponentially as when defined by postseason berths. Still, the pattern holds. Success and failure in the spring both hold sway over the summer. This is further borne out by the distribution of regular season records based on spring training winning percentage, as depicted below.
Distribution of Regular Season Records by Spring Training Winning Percentage, 1984-2016 /1996-2016
Note: Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: espn.com, mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com
Yes, spring training does matter. There are enough exceptions to disprove the rule, and the unique circumstances (i.e., composition of roster, strength of schedule, injuries, player availability, etc.) of individual teams can certainly diminish the relevance. However, historical data suggests at least some hope does spring from strong exhibition season records. And, for teams suffering through a miserable March, Opening Day doesn’t exactly wipe the slate clean.
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