The Captain's Blog

American League East

Despite a questionable starting rotation and injury concerns in the bullpen, the Red Sox clearly have the strongest and deepest offense in the A.L. East, and, in today’s low run scoring era, that gives Boston a distinct advantage. The Red Sox are also buoyed by a strong farm system that boasts several prospects who could either supplement the major league roster or be used to acquire a veteran in a trade (Cole Hamels anyone?). If everything goes right, Boston could win 90-95 games, but because of their pitching questions, they may have to set their sites just below that bar. Still, 89 wins should still be good enough to pace a division full of flawed teams.

The Orioles won 96 games last year, but the departures of Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz should put a major dent in their offense. It’s also hard to imagine Steve Pearce replicating his 2014 performance, and JJ Hardy and Matt Wieters are starting the year on the disabled list. Overall pitching depth and the wisdom of Buck Showalter should be enough to keep Baltimore in contention, and a favorite to win a wild card, but their position is much more precarious this season. The Blue Jays upgraded their offense with two big additions. Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin bolstered an already potent Toronto lineup, but with the preseason injury to Marcus Stroman, the team’s pitching staff could prove too thin for a postseason bid. The Yankees could make a run at the division title, but they could just as easily finish in last place. A more likely scenario for the Bronx Bombers is somewhere down the middle, which would mean a third straight season watching from home in October.

American League Central

The Indians were a team on the rise in the second half of last season, and, with the Royals and Tigers taking a step back due to injury and key offseason defections, they should be able to continue their ascent in 2015. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, who were both recently signed to long-term extensions, will be key figures in the Indians’ success, but Cleveland’s real edge stems from its developing core of mid-20s position players, which, by midseason, could include top prospect Francisco Lindor at shortstop.

The Royals and Tigers shouldn’t be counted out completely, but it won’t be easy overcoming the respective losses of James Shield and Max Scherzer. Also, the Royals will face the added challenge of having their young arms bounce back from a heavy workload during the postseason. The Tigers’ Achilles heel figures to be the injury risk to its key offensive contributors. If either Victor Martinez or Miguel Cabrera miss an extended period of time, it will be hard for Detroit to remain in the race. The White Sox could be a dark horse, but they still figure to finish well off the pace. The Twins should also be improved, but not nearly enough to make noise in the division.

American League West

There should be more demand for Mariners tickets this season because Seattle has one of the game’s most well-rounded teams. The Mariners just fell short of the postseason last year, and like the Indians, should continue that progress in 2015, especially with the emergence of Taijuan Walker and addition of Nelson Cruz. The Angels won’t give up the AL West halo without a fight, and will still be the prohibitive favorite for a wild card. However, the Angels did not improve their pitching, and the loss of Howie Kendrik could take a toll. The Athletics are a shell of the team that dominated baseball in the first half of last season, so .500 seems like a more realistic goal in Oakland.

National League East

Adding Max Scherzer to what was already one of the best rotations in baseball is a good way to make yourself the division favorite. However, the Nationals, though deserving of that distinction, won’t have an easy time of it. The Marlins and Mets are improving and maturing, and, in 2015, both should contend for at least a wild card. If Jose Fernandez returns at near peak form during the summer, that gives the Marlins an edge, but the Mets could just as likely come out ahead, especially if their defense and bullpen outperform less than stellar expectations. Meanwhile, the Braves and Phillies should compete to see who will get next year’s number one draft pick.

National League Central

The Cubs received a lot of attention for improvements made over the offseason, but the Cardinals’ addition of Jayson Heyward could end up being the most impactful if it helps St. Louis stay just ahead of the Pirates for divisional supremacy. The Pirates didn’t make any major additions of their own, and suffered a blow when Russell Martin left for Toronto, but the expected improvement from the team’s young talent should mitigate the loss. The Brewers have an outside chance to displace the Cardinals and Pirates, but they’ll need Ryan Braun to return to MVP form in order to do so. The Cubs could also surprise, but their timetable is still probably one year away (and who’s counting after you reach 107). The Reds are not as bad as some portray, but Cincinnati has trade deadline seller written all over the team, which should deflate its final win total.

National League West

The Dodgers spent a lot to ensure they repeat as NL West champs, but the Padres gave them a run for the money. Los Angeles has too much talent to be overcome by their neighbors to the south, but the Padres could make things interesting over the summer. The Giants, meanwhile, seem destined for another odd-year swoon. Losing Pablo Sandoval and Michael Morse to free agency and Hunter Pence to injury should be big blows to the offense…one that the champs’ mediocre pitching staff will not be able to overcome. San Francisco’s biggest challenge could be playing better than .500, although they (and the Dodgers and Padres) could be buoyed by getting to play 38 games against the woeful Diamondbacks and Rockies.

Playoff Scenarios

Pirates beat Marlins in Wild Card game.
Angels beat Orioles in Wild Card game.

Dodgers beat Pirates in NLDS.
Nationals beat Cardinals in NLDS.
Mariners beat Angels in ALDS.
Indians beat Red Sox in ALDS

Dodgers beat Nationals in NLCS. Mariners beat Indians in ALCS.

Dodgers beat Mariners in World Series

Regular Season Awards

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton
NL ROY: Joc Pederson

AL Cy Young: Michael Pineda
AL MVP: Robinson Cano
AL ROY: Francisco Lindor

Three Bold Prediction

1. At least nine no-hitters will be thrown in the major leagues this year, breaking the 1884 record of eight.

2. After a slow start by the Mets, manager Terry Collins will be fired, after which the team will rally to fall just short of the wild card under interim manager Tim Teufel

3. Alex Rodriguez will lead the Yankees in home runs and rank within the AL top-10 in April, and, if he plays at least 140 games, he will maintain that status for the full season.