The Captain's Blog

The Yankees can win the A.L. East, but, in order to do so, just about every question has to be answered affirmatively. And, the Yankees have plenty. Until recently, the Bronx Bombers’ offseason strategy was to eliminate doubts by wielding its financial strength like a bludgeon on the free agent market. Nowadays, there is a much a greater tolerance for uncertainty, and, as a result, the Yankees enter the 2015 season with a range of possible outcomes that runs the gamut from a last place finish to winning the A.L. East crown. All are possible, but what is likely (click here for 2015 predictions for all teams)?

The Yankees won 84 games in 2014, but, based on run differential, they played more like a 77-win team. If you split the difference, that makes last year’s Bronx Bombers about breakeven. Considering Brian Cashman did not make any major upgrades, it’s fair to begin an assessment of this season at that level. Of course, last year left plenty of room of improvement. Infield defense is one area where the Yankees will be much better. With Chase Headley returning for a full season and Didi Gregorius and Stephen Drew joining him up the middle, the Yankees infield promises to be one of the best in the game when it comes to catching the ball. In addition, the Bronx Bombers can reasonably expect Brian McCann to perform closer to his career norm. Otherwise, the Yankees’ fate is very precarious. If the same team that struggled so much last year can prove triumphant in 2015, it will not only need to reap the reward of the reasonable, but also the benefit from the unexpected.

Headlining the Yankees’ list of question marks on Opening Day is the man who will be taking the mound. Not only do the Yankees need Masahiro Tanaka to stay healthy all year, but they also need him to pitch at near-peak effectiveness. Can the Japanese right hander protect his elbow with a new pitching style and simultaneously achieve the same level of dominance he attained before his injury? Any answer but a resounding yes would represent a setback.

Tanaka isn’t the only concern in the Yankees rotation. All five members are cast in doubt. There’s no question about the effectiveness of Michael Pineda when he’s healthy, but, as is the common theme for this year’s Bronx Bombers, that’s a very big if. The now 26-year old has thrown only 76 big league innings since 2011, but this year, the Yankees will need him to triple that total if they hope to mitigate some of the slack that currently exists in the rotation. Nathan Eovaldi is another pitcher who could stem the Yankees’ apparent deficiency in the rotation, provided he finally makes good on the potential that his performance over the last four seasons has belied. Without a healthy and effective trio of Tanaka, Pineda, and Eovaldi, the Yankees’ rotation will rely too heavily upon the aging and oft-injured CC Sabathia as well as what promises to be a fifth starter carousel currently being steered by Adam Warren. All five members of the rotation possess either the talent or pedigree to help the Yankees have a very strong rotation, but, remember, last year, starting pitching was one of the team’s strengths. With risk spread evenly throughout the initial starting five, the chances of the Yankees building on that success (Yankees ranked fourth in the major leagues in starting pitcher xFIP) seems slim, while the risk of significant regression is real.

The Yankees bullpen should continue to be a team strength, but will it match last year’s top billing? In 2014, Yankees’ relievers combined for a major league leading fWAR of 5.5, which could be hard to match. Although Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller should both have strong seasons at the back end of the bullpen, it’s probably unreasonable to expect either pitcher to repeat their dominance from last year. Also, with the loss of David Robertson and the team’s plan to use a closer-by-committee, the Yankees could experience some growing pains in the ninth inning. The Bronx Bombers could also face a bumpy transition in middle relief. With several National League imports rounding out the bullpen, and Adam Warren promoted to the rotation, the Yankees may need some time to sort out the setup roles. If Joe Girardi has earned the benefit of the doubt in one area, its bullpen management, but even he fits all the pieces together, this year’s relief corps will have a hard time matching their predecessor.

For the second straight season, the Yankees had not only one of the weakest offenses in the American League, but in the history of the franchise. Normally, such extended futility would have inspired dramatic changes to the roster, but the only potentially significant offensive upgrade during the offseason was the reinstatement of Alex Rodriguez. A strong spring has assuaged some concerns about the three-time MVP’s ability to rebound from a year-long suspension, but he is still pushing 40, so the Yankees are taking a big risk by counting on Arod. The same is true for fellow veterans Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran. Even with solid backups like Chris Young and Garret Jones, the Yankees desperately need this trio to both remain healthy and productive because the rest of the lineup has questions of its own.

The Yankees can expect an improvement from Brian McCann, but the rest of the offense has little upside. Chase Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner were all productive members of the lineup last year, and figure to be so in 2015, but counting on anything more than a modest uptick from either would be wishful thinking. As a result, if the Yankees are to improve upon last year’s futile offense, they’ll likely need a big spike in production from the middle infield positions. In 2014, the Yankees didn’t get much offense up the middle, so the bar is set low for improvement, but recent history suggests Didi Gregorious and Stephen Drew are no sure bet to clear it.

One area in which the Yankees are much better than last year is defense. With four gold glove caliber infielders, a catcher renowned for framing pitches, and two speedy centerfields patrolling the outfield, the Yankees may not score a lot of runs, but they should be able to prevent their fair share. Defense efficiency could also be accentuated by the team’s embrace of a shifting philosophy, which, with better athletes, could yield even greater results in 2015.

If your head is spinning, it’s with good reason. Trying to forecast the team’s win total for 2015 is like assembling a puzzle with changing pieces. And, like a puzzle, it’s always easier to proceed by building a framework and filling in the middle. Toward that end, below are 10 key questions outlined and answered in the context of best, base, and worst case scenarios.

Best Case Scenario: 92 wins

The Yankees have averaged 96 wins over the last 19 seasons, so 92 might not seem like a best case scenario. However, in what promises to be a very mediocre division and league, that should be enough to at least earn a wild card. So, how do the Yankees get to 92 wins? By not only staying healthy, but having many of their veterans turn back the clock on their steady decline.

1. Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda both pitch at least 180 effective innings.
2. Nathan Eovaldi emerges as an above average major league starter.
3. CC Sabathia or whomever fills the fifth starter role (Adam Warren at present; perhaps Chris Capuano and Ivan Nova later in the season) consistently pitch at a near league average level.
4. Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller have encore performances, with each adapting well to the Yankees’ intended closer-by-committee.
5. David Carpenter, or another member of the bullpen, emerges as a “sixth to seventh inning guy”, capable of filling the role left open by Adam Warren’s promotion to the bullpen.
6. Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Carlos Beltran collectively play 400 games, and provide above average offense for players at their respective positions.
7. Brian McCann rebounds with a season more commensurate with his career norm.
8. Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and Chase Headley all contribute at a level that approximates their 2014 production in pinstripes, both in terms of playing time and production.
9. Didi Gregorious and Stephen Drew improve upon the level of production the Yankees received from their middle infielders last year, while playing gold glove defense.
10. Bench players, such as Chris Young and Garret Jones, are productive enough to allow Joe Girardi to rest his many aging position players. Also, at least one position player prospect emerges as a meaningful contributor on the major league level.

Base Case Scenario: 81 wins

1. Either Masahiro Tanaka or Michael Pineda succumbs to injury, limiting both the number of innings he is able to pitch and his effectiveness.
2. Nathan Eovaldi improves upon his career numbers, but not substantially so, leaving the Yankees with a league average pitcher in the middle of their rotation.
3. Neither CC Sabathia nor the Yankees’ fifth starter are able to consistently provide a quality start, with each instead alternating between effectiveness and early showers.
4. Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller each have a strong season, but do not dominate as they did in 2014. Also, there are some hiccups involved with the Yankees use of a closer-by-committee.
5. A reliable setup man fails to emerge for the middle innings, leaving the Yankees unable to consistently navigate the bridge to their two-headed closer.
6. Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Carlos Beltran all suffer aches and pains that limit their ability to stay in the lineup. As a result, the trio is only able to collectively play around 300 games, and, when injuries linger, their effectiveness is hampered.
7. Brian McCann has a better season, but still falls short of his career totals with the Braves.
8. Either injury or regression cut modestly into the production of Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner or Chase Headley. All three are still positive contributors, but at least one member of the trio declines suffers a decline from last year.
9. Didi Gregorious and Stephen Drew play gold glove defense, but one of the pair struggles significantly at the plate, making it difficult for the Yankees to carry their glove in the lineup.
10. The Yankees’ bench proves adequate, but incapable of providing enough production to compensate for the needs of an aging offense. Also, minor league reinforcements require an adjustment period before being able to supplement the lineup.

Worst Case Scenario: 70 wins

If everything goes right for the Yankees, they could be AL East champs? But, what about the flip side? If more answers come back negative, then the Bronx Bombers could just as easily bring up the rear in the division. Unfortunately, because there are so many questions, many of which pertain to key members of the team, the Yankees’ worst case is not a doomsday scenario, but rather a reasonable assessment of what could happen if most of the Yankees’ gambles fail to pay off.

1. Both Masahiro Tanaka or Michael Pineda can’t make it through a full season, and at times when in the rotation, their effectiveness is hampered by injury.
2. The Yankees are unable to tap into the potential of Nathan Eovaldi, who continues to toil as a below average pitcher despite possessing superior “stuff”.
3. Either CC Sabathia or the Yankees’ fifth starter performs consistently poorly, and not only fails to give the Yankees a chance to win each time out, but also places undue strain on the team’s bullpen.
4. Either Dellin Betances or Andrew Miller regresses to earlier struggles with wildness, leaving the Yankees without the two-headed monster they envisioned at the backend of their bullpen.
5. A reliable setup man fails to emerge for the middle innings, and the team’s stable of National League imports struggle in their transition to the American League.
6. Injury and age continue to dog Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Carlos Beltran all season. The trio isn’t completely ineffective, but collectively, they provide little more than league average offense in a combined 250 games.
7. Brian McCann does not improve meaningfully over last season.
8. Either injury or regression cut more significantly into the combined production of Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner or Chase Headley. At least two members of the trio are still positive contributors, but at least one suffers either an injury or meaningful production decline from last year.
9. Didi Gregorious and Stephen Drew play gold glove defense, but both players struggle significantly at the plate. As a result, the Yankees are forced to weaken their defense by playing reserves who are less capable at each position.
10. The Yankees’ bench players are unable to take on the increased workload necessitated by injuries to veterans, and the team’s minor league prospects are not yet ready to pick up the slack.