The Captain's Blog

The Yankees have added a big arm, a giant headache, and a world of possibilities.

There’s no point burying the lead. Aroldis Chapman’s pending investigation under MLB’s new domestic violence policy is just as relevant to his acquisition by the Yankees as the lefty’s ability to light up the radar gun. After all, if not for the allegations, Chapman would likely be a Dodger, and the Yankees would have had no chance to acquire him for such a modest package of prospects. Put more bluntly, Chapman is a Yankee because of, not in spite of, baseball’s ongoing domestic violence investigation.

Because of the uniqueness of the situation, the Chapman trade has a rare ethical component. In recent years, the off field behavior of athletes has come under increased scrutiny, with domestic violence garnering particular attention. As a result, some have argued that by trading for Chapman, the Yankees are sending “the wrong message”. However, it’s unclear what message is being sent and to whom?

Yesterday’s trade does not change the fact that Chapman is still the subject of an ongoing investigation. His acquisition by the Yankees doesn’t absolve him of any alleged wrong doing, nor grant him any favors in the process. Professional critics are always eager to weigh in on controversy, but there are three possible outcomes for the Chapman inquiry, and each one deserves a different reaction. For that reason, it’s not only premature to condemn Chapman, but also too early to heap scorn upon the Yankees.

If Chapman is exonerated by the MLB investigation, the Yankees’ public relations headache will instantly disappear. A firestorm could also be avoided if guilt is accompanied by a swift and fair punishment. A slap on the wrist, however, would likely subject the Yankees, and the league, to backlash. This is the risk the Yankees have taken, but that doesn’t mean the team has become an advocate for a particular outcome.

After the trade was announced, Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman acknowledged the sensitivity of the pending investigation, and offered no pre-emptive defense of his new closer’s actions. Although the team reportedly did due diligence on the allegations, Cashman was careful to point out that the threat of disciplinary action remains. And, more importantly, the Yankees’ GM indicated that the team would support whatever form of punishment was handed down by the commissioner. Because of Chapman’s enormous talent, the Yankees were willing to take such a risk, but, at least at this point, they’ve given no indication that his pitching prowess will cause them to turn their back on MLB’s findings. “The results will be whatever they will be,” the GM stated rather matter-of-factly, and such ambiguity seems to accurately reflect the gamble the Yankees have taken.

Again, if not for the allegations of domestic abuse, the Yankees would have had no chance to acquire Chapman. However, with the cloud of suspicion, and suspension, hanging over his head, Chapman became a distressed asset, and the Yankees swooped in. Contrary to knee-jerk criticism, this opportunistic action doesn’t minimize the seriousness of the charges against Chapman, nor indicate the Yankees’ disregard for the social issues involved. Instead, the trade represents the team’s new buy low philosophy that is designed to keep payroll from getting too high.

At this point, the only message the Yankees have sent is that they are willing to take chances in order to stick to a budget. In this instance, all of the risk is off the field, which means the potential baseball payoff could be extraordinary. As the Royals have proven, a lockdown bullpen can go a long way toward disguising overall mediocrity, so having Chapman join forces with Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances arguably does more to turn the Yankees from pretender to contender than any other position upgrade. That alone justifies the trade, but there are still several other ways the Yankees could come out ahead in the exchange.

In order for the Yankees to benefit from Chapman’s golden left arm in 2016, he needs to pitch. A lengthy suspension could scuttle those ambitions, but not without a silver lining. If Chapman is disciplined for approximately 50 games, it would set back his service time clock and give the Yankees another season of team control. Having the big lefty for two seasons instead of one would compound the gain.

Because the cost to acquire Chapman was so light, the Yankees could benefit from the trade even if the hard throwing lefty doesn’t make them a pennant contender. Among the four minor leaguers sent to the Reds, only Rookie Davis stands out as a prospect, so on a cost basis, the Yankees would simply need to replace what they surrendered in order to come out ahead. Should Chapman leave as a free agent after the season, the compensation draft pick and slot money might suffice. Also, if the Yankees fall out of the race, a deadline trade of Chapman would also have the potential to net a better group of prospects. What’s more, if the Yankees decide to break up their bullpen trio and trade Miller or Betances, the resultant haul would likely dwarf what they traded for Chapman. Using the transitive property of baseball trades, the Yankees could end up swapping four marginal minor league prospects for a return even greater than Chapman himself.

The Yankees have taken a calculated risk that doesn’t excuse or defend Chapman’s behavior, but rather factors in the potential consequences of his actions into theirs. Now, it’s up to MLB to sort through the details and, potentially, send a message about domestic violence. As long as baseball does proper due diligence, and the Yankees support the process and accept the outcome, it shouldn’t matter what uniform Chapman is wearing during the investigation. If a just punishment is rendered, the message sent will be the same, and the Yankees will either reap the reward or pay the price.